Further Escalation in the Middle East
At the time of this writing, at least three major explosions or fires have been reported within Iran, including an under ground facility in Tehran, a mountainous area outside Shiraz, and an alleged Basij base in an unknown location. Israeli citizens have reportedly been warned to immediately prepare for retaliatory attacks by Iran, and the nation has raised its alert level in the past 24 hours, as Donald Trump has been reported to have told Tucker Carlson to “turn down the temperature” on the GOP’s recent rift over Israel. Escalations abound from both sides of this standoff today, as yet another dozen F-15E Strike Eagles and another two E-3C AWACS planes have been deployed en route to the Middle East, while the Gerald R. Ford carrier group has been spotted off the coast of Morocco and is within three to four days of reaching its operating position. These accompanying the massive influx of additionally equipment which was reported on yesterday. Rhetoric coming from the Iranian side of things has also been steeply cranked up today, with an advisor to Iran’s parliament speaker Mahdi Mohammed saying “Iran is prepared to teach America a lesson that will change history.”
There are now extensive indications that a major, sustained conflict is on the verge of breaking out between the United States and Iran, one which would forever alter the face of the region in ways no one can with legitimacy, predict. The stakes are undeniably high, with regime officials loosely lobbing about threats to launch ballistic missiles at all manner of targets in retaliation, often boasting that they will sink US Navy vessels including our aircraft carriers. It is typically understood in policy circles that the threats made by Iran are performative, and disingenuous, but here, we ought to exercise greater caution, as in this moment of existential threat, their willingness to use maximal force in their own defense is a real possibility, albeit suicidal if they are to quickly deplete what munitions remain at their disposal, something surely the leadership is aware of at this time. Russian planes have of course been spotted around Tehran amid speculation that Ayatollah Ali Khomeini could make a run for it, calling on Mr. Putin for the condo, perhaps one down the hall from Mr. Assad; as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has noted since early January that individuals with ties to the regime have continued to frantically wire monstrous sums of funds out of the country in an apparent indication of their preparation to flee in the event of the government’s collapse.
The reader would be advised to buckle tightly into their seat, for this could become an ugly engagement, one which is not soon to be over with.
